Power Hikes Were Inevitable But Is There Any Hope ?

                                        Power Hikes Were Inevitable But Is There Any Hope?

Pakistan suffered unprecedented Power Shut Downs in last 6-7 years, ironically the shut downs worsened over the period, with each passing day brought more misery and distress. It did not happen over night neither it can be rectified over night, it needs a consistent and honest effort which unfortunately was missing in dictator Musharraf Era followed by more misery in democratic regime of PPP. Both made devastating decisions, both followed the same policy of 'Rental Power Plants', marred by corruption and nepotism, billions of dollars  were looted. Zardari regime came into Power with 6-8 hours of Power outages, which unfortunately worsened as days and years passed, peaked to 15-18 hours when Zardari Sahib left. Three biggest mistakes made by Zardari regime. 1) Blindly followed the Musharraf Policy of Rental Power Plants. 2) Not giving a comprehensive Power Policy. 3) Corruption was rampage and broke all records, nepotism and favouritism was promoted without realising the fall out on country's economy above all on people's life's.

Now came the PMLN with a promise of Roshan Pakistan, with a commitment to get rid of this darkness hampering growth, making life of a common citizen, a living hell, bringing the economy to a near stand still, in fact a net negative growth in last PPP tenure, almost zero job creation in five year rule, leaving a historic debt of 14.5 trillion rupees.

 

PMLN after assuming power, promised to get rid of this years long "circular debt" in 60 days, which they actually paid within promised period, a sum of 480 billion paid to Power companies. Secondly, they did give a "Power Policy" within months of assuming Power.  These two steps have done wonders, immediately reviving the image of the Pakistan among International Power Companies, opening up new horizons of Foreign Direct Investment plus bridging that trust deficit developed among these Power Producers, who threatened to invoke sovereign guarantees in fact took the Government Of Pakistan to court. International Organisations have agreed to pour in funds in different Hydro Projects, Independent Power Producers  have also agreed to shift their Thermal Power Plants to Coal Based Low Cost Plants, Coal Projects with the help of Multinational companies at Godani and Port Qasim are beginning to look like a reality, many other avenues have opened up like Solar Park in Behawalpur, Wind Projects in Sindh etc. Paying this circular debt has immediately subsided Power Crisis, Load Shedding has been brought down to 6-7 hours in fact on Eid Holidays there was almost no Load Shedding or Minimum in few areas. Experts believe that Power crisis has cost this country 1-1.5% of GDP growth yearly, that is equivalent to 1000 billion rupees annually, Now just imagine the impact of reduced power shortages. Adding to this tally, imagine the number of jobs that will be created once medium to small industry are switched on after years of shut down, just on this EID we witnessed a historic Economic activity, 228 billion worth Animals slaughtered across Pakistan, 31% increase from previous year, 10 billion rupees hides bought by leather industry alone.

Now there is a huge resentment, anger among different political parties and masses on recent Power Hikes by PMLN Government. Raising rates for different slabs, but not touching the 68% of population that is using below 200 units, raising minimum rates for next slabs using 20% of electricity that is 200-300 units, yes the most effected ones are the rest 12%. These power hikes increased strategically in winter to minimise the backlash of public, which seemingly working and people adjusting to new reality. Now Question arises, Is There Any Hope After Recent Power Hikes?

 1) PMLN paid the circular debt of 480 billion rupees, if you wouldn't hike the rate this will accumulate in a year and half, because in last decade or so we have made mess of our energy mix, from 70-30 mix in hydro favour we have reversed the trend in last decade, now average cost of a unit is 16-17 rupees. 12 rupee cost, 2 rupee administrative cost add 2-3 rupees line losses to it. PPP made a grave mistake by not rationalising the tariff, secondly not bringing down the line losses that led to their down fall. PMLN doing both the things, a country wide crack down on Power Thief's, putting pressure on respective Provincial Government's with highest line losses like Pesco, Hesco, Qesco, KESC etc. That doesn't mean there is no theft in Punjab, only difference, in Punjab consumer has to pay for the theft while in other Provinces the State bear the brunt. 2) PMLN making head ways in changing that energy mix initiating work on many low cost energy projects, focusing on alternate energy projects like Godani Power Corridor, Solar Parks, Basha and Dhaso Dams, Wind Energy, Terbela Extension, expediting work on Nelum Jehlam and Nandi Pur Power projects, Chasma 3 & 4,  2100 MW Nuclear Power Plants in Karachi, revamping Jamshoro Power Projects, Guddu Power plant 765 MW, Independent Power Producers converting 3000 MW Power houses to Coal etc. 3) PMLN paid this circular debt by printing new notes which already have crossed 550 billion rupees in PMLN 120 days in office bringing a tsunami of inflation,  it will be catastrophic to print such an amount in 1.5  year down the line. Just imagine PPP government giving staggering 1400 billion rupees in subsidy during their tenure without discriminating between elite, powerful, poor and crushed ones,  it's not a rocket science to assume who benefited the most. On top of that a 200 billion theft yearly, highest line losses in Pakistan's 65 year history, Grand total is 2400 billion rupees, imagine with this much money two large dams can be built, can make all our miseries go away in a blink of an eye if this money would have been utilised sensibly. 4) Nawaz Regime has formulated a comprehensive Power Policy to tackle this menace, may prove a game changer, this needs to be implemented in letter and spirit, Provincial Government's are to be held accountable as proposed in this Policy, stringent anti-theft laws, prioritising the Gas allocation to efficient plants, eliminating unjust subsidies given to different Industries while allocating gas quota's are the salient features of this power policy.

Next 2-3 years will define the path set by this Government, solving this puzzle of power crisis can actually lead to make or break of this Government, if Nawaz Regime is able to change the energy mix in next 36-48 months hence brings the tariff down, if Nawaz Regime is able to curtail the depressingly high Line Losses which ironically are highest in the region, if Nawaz Regime is able to revamp the ailing and decaying Power Infrastructure, placing honest and able Chief Executive assisted by truthful BOG, only then the people of Pakistan will be satisfied. I think next election will be fought on two points, "Energy and Terrorism", merciless and heartless accountability awaits this regime in 2018 so they better be ready for it.

Malala Yousaf Zai: The Heroine

   

                                               Malala Yousaf Zai: The Heroine

The whole Nation went into shock and mourning on hearing the heart wrenching news of 15 year old Malala YousafZai being shot by TTP at point blank range. According to eye witnesses two young boys stopped the school vain, one talked to the driver while the other rushed into back of the vain, asked one Question, "WHO IS Malala", shot the young lady from point blank range, three bullets were fired, one hitting Malala while two hit her friends. She and her friends were rushed to nearby Mingora Hospital. The news spread like wild fire in the country, everyone felt the pain of the horrifying event. Early reports suggested that there was little hope that brave girl will survive the trauma.

 Question must be asked what on earth happened in last one year that  Malala from a Pakistani Sweat Heart turned into a villain for many Pakistanis, what  had she  done to earn such an hatred among different sections of life. I still remember before that incident she used to appear in many talk shows, was treated as a celebrity and role model for the youth, a voice that had the courage to stand against mighty Taliban. Was very vocal for Women rights and their education, remained on Media Fore front during the successful Swat operation,  she appeared in many talk shows and celebrated the victory with armed forces and every citizen of Pakistan. She was passionate and hopeful that finally her home would get rid of terrorist, she and other girls could move freely and get education.

She was made controversial even before she was shot but nobody cared because everyone considered her the voice against oppressive regime of Taliban. Her pictures with Foreign Ambassadors floated in Social Media, she was termed as the conspirator and tool in foreign hands (NGOs) working against her own Nation. The day she was shot the whole Nation was in mourning, the day she was transported to England for specialised treatment, Rehabilitation and Cranial Reconstructive Surgery, the conspirator started spilling the beans, terming Malala a foreign agent, even few declared her injury as fake, the Social Media was flooded with different kind of pictures and conspiracy theories regarding her injury.

Now let us weave the whole story thread by thread and different stories sold in the market by conspirators. Without wasting any time let me assure that Malala Yousaf Zai was shot at point blank range, with entry wound just on top of left eye, grazing the brain, damaging the left ear and reaching left shoulder. So all that saved Malala Yousaf Zai was a miracle ( God's Help ) plus bullet sparing the brain by one-two inches. Below is the image from Malala Skull showing the entry point and exit point.

Now credit must be given to the Team of Doctors in Pakistan, who carried out the initial surgery, skillfully  restructuring the severely damaged facial nerve, removing the bullet, which  proved life saving in the end, in fact Malala's Doctor in UK was very categorical  about  the initial handling of Malala in Pakistan as the main reason of her survival, from Mingora to Swat to Peshawar to Rawalpindi, everything was done methodically, professionally and skillfully. We all can see the visible tilt to her facial gesture because of that damaged facial nerve which was  very masterly reconstructed even UK Doctors were very impressed by the skill and technique of Pakistani Neuro Surgeons. She was send to UK because Pakistan lacked the facility for the rehabilitation and Cranial Reconstructive Surgery. She remained in Birmingham hospital for three months, where a "Titanium Skull"  and "Ear Implant" was placed. She lost her hearing  but fortunately she will be able to hear from her left ear within a year or so Inshallah. Below is the 3D image of the Titanium  and Ear Implant. Hopefully this debate will end here and all the pictures circulating in the Social Media will be removed immediately.

Secondly, argument raised against the child that she is a foreign agent playing in their Master's hands to fulfil their hidden agenda and malign her own country. For God Sake she was  fifteen year old when she was shot, she is now sixteen, how on earth, a girl so young,  can hatch such plots against her own country, yes her handler's may have their motives but how on earth this makes the little Doll the Traitor ??. All  she  talks, is Education for Children and  women, Even during her address in Untied Nations she begged  to stop this War, give books and pen in the hands of Young Children instead of Guns and Bombs.  Many of us have raised objections, why Malala has been given so much coverage in international Media why she was given such importance and hype ??. Let me tell you, a girl surviving a point blank range bullet shot, a girl daring a mindset,  automatically becomes important and special for Western countries, which nobody could imagine in those areas, on top of that  their help saved the girl's life what's the big issue  ? does that equate her to a traitor. Finally, many question, why she has been given so many awards, she never deserved , Abdul Sattar Eidi and Arfa Karim deserve more. The answer is simple, who is stopping you people, give them as many awards as you want, Eidi Sahib has done amazing service to this Nation, Arfa was a childhood genius, but they were Pakistani Hero's as Malala  but Malala has got International dimension attached to her that is "War On Terror" plus she was fortunate enough to have a second life and flown to UK for specialised treatment.

Having said all, let me put some Question's to you people, 1) why can't we accept the fact that a fifteen year old girl defying all the odds had challenged the Mindset while we all in our domains failed to do that, she  was living in Swat,  area captured by Taliban but  she resisted and raised her voice for women education, stayed there despite numerous threats to her life ??. 2) She stayed back, once Operation was complete in Swat Vally despite having easy option to study in any school in the country, in fact the best one but she preferred her hometown ??. 3) Is this Malala's fault that she was shot from a point blank range while she was threatened several time's, is this Malala's fault that our Law Enforcement Agencies failed to protect her ??. 4) Is this Malala's fault that she couldn't be treated in Pakistan because we lack the facility of  specialised treatment ??. 5) Is this Malala's fault that we can't protect her  if she decides to come home, we all know what happened to Mohtrama Benazir Bhutto, two time Prime Minister when she came ????.

Yes her only fault was that she dared a particular mindset, she fought for her rights, she raised her voice for other women's rights. Let's accept it gracefully we were sitting in our cosy lounges when that brave girl dared the Taliban, when nobody else in their wildest dreams could have thought so. Let's accept, she has given hope, not only to thousands of women and children in her area but she is a phenomenon around the Globe. Tell me how many of us would have thought a Young Pakistani addressing the United Nation's and the World Leaders listening to her, the Whole World coming to a stand still while she was addressing, Let's be honest how many of us would have thought that her book "I AM Malala" on her release will immediately become a best seller, How many of us thought that a Young Pakistani will be nominated for "Nobel's" a  very strong contender. Malala has only brought joy and laurels to this Nation, I don't care who is handling her what are their motive's and  what they are trying to achieve, all I care is, that Malala has given me a hope, an ambition that anything is possible and can be achieved , if you believe in yourself.

Nawaz's Promised Glory Still A Distant Dream

                        Nawaz's Promised Glory Still A Distant Dream

11th May 2013 promised a rising of  new Dawn, when people of Pakistan against all odds and predictions gave a clear mandate to Nawaz Sharif PMLN, may be last five years of Zardari regime made them politically mature, Nawaz Sharif's  asked people repeatedly in  Public outings to give him a clear mandate and finally Shahbaz Sharif track record in Governing Punjab proved to be a trump card. Sharif brothers solemn promise and undertaking to the people of Pakistan that they will bring change in their life's through economic reforms and Institution building. The masses responded to their commitment and has given them simple majority despite " Tsunami onslaught" by Imran Khan PTI who gave PMLN run for their money and in many constituencies ran neck to neck in their stronghold Punjab.

Not taking anything away from PMLN they started off pretty well, set some high standards when they let PTI form Government in KPK,  Nationalists were allowed to form Government in Baluchistan, did a monumental job by paying years long Circular Debt of 480 billion rupees which reduced the power crisis from 12-18 hours to 6-8 hours on average, giving "Energy Policy" first of its kind which restored investor confidence in power sector leading to energy contracts and light at the end of the tunnel that  this Jenny shall be locked in a bottle once for all in 3-4 years with cheap electricity . Railway  has started to show some promise as well where a very competent Minister Khwaja Saad Rafique is doing a fine job. Many dubious deals done by previous regime have been cancelled saving billions, corrupt officers  have been held accountable and honest officers given responsibilities at key posts. The best thing done by this regime, is  to run a corruption free Government, hardly any case of major corruption has surfaced, Prime Minister has taken note of few surfacing in Media, massive cut in Governments non-developmental expenditures etc. Recently announced youth package by PM is  notable step to empower youth, 125 billion, 1-1.2 million rupees to individual applicant. Loans to 100 thousand skilled youth can be a game changer, different from BISF, it will create job opportunities as well, this scheme needs to be carefully monitored and should be free of political interference.

 Major effort and steps have been taken to restore peace in Karachi, comprehensive dialogue with all stake holders while cabinet meeting was held in Karachi, key decisions  were taken with all parties on board,  rangers have been given unprecedented powers approved by Cabinet to control heinous crimes. Interior Ministry  is taking close view on day to day Law and Order situation in Karachi,  visible change has been seen in Karachi target killings and marked reduction in Bhatta cases but lot needs to be done with continuous and consistent effort .

Having said all,  many may think , being skeptical and naive still not satisfied with all these efforts but let me be very clear and categorical, these steps hardly matter in civilised World but to us Pakistanis these things matter a lot. Let me be very honest, Mian Nawaz Sharif promised a sea saw change in his pre-election campaign, a team promised to be the best in the history of Pakistan, full of economic wizardry and experience. He on numerous occasions talked about his 100 day plan and visible change in decaying Public entities, structural reforms in  Government owned cooperation's draining close to 500 billion rupees tax payers hard earned money yearly, he used to call them "White Elephants". Promised appointment of honest heads assisted by committed and honest BOG. Government tried to revamp PIA through several appointments but  political appointments and politically aligned aides were preferred  violating Supreme Judgement. Though these decisions were taken back once Supreme Court intervened but Question arises why on earth you make such blunders ??. A wave against Bijli and Gas Chor across the country under a very honest and up right FIA official which  have paid rich dividends but again no effort has been made to restructure these organizations, no strike down on all the corrupt officers who promoted these corrupt practices,  have become millionaire ??.

Can you imagine a civilised country running without Heads of many institutions like Nab ( 400 billion rupee cases pending ), Chief Election Commissioner, PTA head ( appointed few days back on SC orders), Steal Mill etc etc. long list, though Government has hired a renowned International Firm to scrutinise all these postings but still Nab Chief and Election Commissioner have nothing to do with that, Constitutional posts immediately need to be filled with sincere and competent individual. Key posts of Ambassadors in UK and USA have fallen vacant, while USA has announced a with drawl from Afghanistan, end Game in War on Terror but we are without ambassadors. Key Ministries stand vacant, "Law Ministry", defence Ministry and Foreign Ministry are held by PM himself, may be due to his fears of nineties but again Pakistan is fighting major insurgencies in Fata and Baluchistan, decision to launch major operations against these insurgents is eminent, we need full time Minsters at key posts though Sartaj Aziz as Prime Minister Aide in Foreign Ministry  is doing a pretty good job. Similarly Baluchistan cabinet has not  been finalised due to internal rift in PML( N ) Baluchistan. Astonishingly The Province running without a Cabinet, key administrative decisions pending without Cabinet, we are almost into fifth month of Government.

Much trumped economic managers, facing night mares, Dollar on free fall ride, fluctuating daily giving rise to speculations, inflation has started to rise again from its lowest when this Government took over it was between 6% to 8.5%, Unprecedented price hike in petrol, gas and Electricity, IMF package may have given some respite to Foreign exchange reserves plus record remittances, increase in exports and FDI improving  though latest numbers have started to dip, similarly much hyped Tax Reforms failing to add new tax payers, while Government resorting to burdening already paying taxes, tax collection hitting record low of 8.5% of GDP ( Growth of 17% in tax collection seen in First Quarter figures but again Question must be asked, does new avenues has been taped for revenue Generation ?? or already paying taxes burdened ?? ).

The biggest debacle faced by PMLN government is their failure to handle the menace of terrorism, a monster eating away life and hurting the very soul of this Nation. One dimensional approach of Peace talks alone  is not  to work at all with these terrorists. Nawaz Sharif immediately need to come up with comprehensive strategy to tackle these insurgents not willing to lay down their arms and involved in continuous attacks in Pakistan. Nawaz Sharif need to realise that people of Pakistan have trusted him as their leader, now is the time to deliver. To their credit PMLN chalked out an "Anti Terrorist Law" which if passed can be a game changer against insurgency faced by Pakistan.

All in all, PMLN Government is doing far better job than their predecessor, avoiding corruption scandals, undue wrangling with Judiciary, tackling key issue of Power Shortages, Karachi Mayhem, Proposed Anti Terror Law etc. but it is not a smooth a ride as expected , many decisions could have been avoided, many things could have been done on War footings to support these ailing institutions. Somehow we are seeing a lack of political will and indecisiveness by this Government which was not usually expected from PM who is third time in Power. Yes the challenges are monumental and humongous in nature but extraordinary times need extraordinary efforts, Leaders need to rise up to the occasion if  they want to be remembered in  History. In the end I may add, It will take at least

10-15 years to rebuild  shattered Pakistan, if we work day in  and day out. Turkey is the prime example.