Pakistan Peoples Party, The Sinking Titanic

                     Pakistan Peoples Party, The Sinking Titanic

Its extremely disappointing to see a National Political Party like PPP touching its historic lows. Some would say that they suffered the same phenomenon in 1997, when they could get only seventeen National Assembly seats that too from interior Sindh. But that was a complete different picture from today, then PPP was led by Mohterama Benazir Bhutto, Iconic personality and charismatic politician. Secondly, two party system had been established  in the form of Muslim League and PPP, now PPP is facing the challenge of revolt from inside their own ranks due to numerous charges of Zardari's  loot and plunder for last five years and Pakistan Economy is touching the new lows, never witnessed in history before,  internal debt is touching 15,00 billion rupees and external crossing 70 billion US dollars, which means each Pakistani has to pay 80,000 thousand rupees in debt. Dollar breaching 100 rupees barrier and is all set to touch new heights. But most worrying thing for PPP, is no "Benazir" around to safe thier skin.

PPP has never witnessed such hatred and bad reputation in its history like its facing right know, Zardaris approval ratings are even worse than Pervaiz Musharaf last year in office. Pakistan never witnessed an era where corrupt people are protected and in few cases were able to flee from country with the help of State institutions, which were designated to control corruption have ganged up to become  partner in protecting corrupt practises. Few examples are Punjab Bank, Steel Mill, OGRA, Rental Power, Ephedrine Case, Hajj Scam etc, where State institutions aided  culprits in saving their skins rather than bringing them to justice through impartial inquirers.

Independent Election Commission

If we look into the history of previous General Election, when PPP had wave of sympathy after "BB Shahdat", Mushraf too gave them easy ride through NRO and to calm down the anger which had arisen after BB shahdat, technically he tried his level best to hand over majority to his darling PMLQ and PPP through massive pre-poll rigging in the form of Nazim System  and bogus registration of votes  in their tenure, literally giving them a walk over in Baluchistan, under-developed areas of KPK, and Southern Punjab.  Unfortunately that magic didn't work in cities due to prevention of Poll Day rigging on the orders of Chief Of Army Staff,  PMLN was able to win in major cities of Punjab.

PPP won 87 NA seats, PMLN 69, and PMLQ 41 seats, emerged as major players in last GE. PPP and PMLQ won majority of their seats from Southern Punjab, Balochistan, Sindh and few seats in KPK as well, while PMLN won most of their seats from Northern Punjab and few from Hazara as well. PMLN also fetched few seats from Southern Punjab but not a single seat from Sindh and only one from Baluchistan.

 Let us dissect the whole scenario in coming GE in  few months time. PMLQ is literally out of the race as there is no Pervaiz Mushraf around, no bogus votes to lean on, Nazims out of the way and availability of best possible candidates. Majority of their candidates have either left them or all set to find  new nests before next GE, for "Chaudries of Gujrat" all that is left, is  their home constituency Gujrat (tough nut to crack) or may be few seats here and there, if luck goes their way. PMLQ is all set to lose majority of thier 41 National Assembly seats they won in last GE.

For PPP the picture looks gloomy as well, in last GE,  won close to 19 seats from northern Punjab which they are all set to loose unless some miracle saves them. Similar is the case of KPK. So for PPP, "Southern Punjab" and "Interior Sindh" looks very important (Close to 90 NA seats). In southern Punjab PPP is trying to play with public sentiments over New Provinces issue, but  recent surveys indicate, this trump card of PPP doesn't look to give desire results, particularly people from Behawalpur out rightly rejected this move, in fact has back fired in that area. Many of their and PMLQ candidates from Southern Punjab have joined PMLN, giving  headaches to PPP so balance seems to have tilt against PPP. What is left for PPP is "interior Sindh", where they are holding their foot despite worse possible governance and poor delivery,  recent polls  showed, a considerable decrease in support but still enough to win majority in Sindh.  PMLN and Nawaz Shahrif  main focus is on Sindh, holding big public rallies, according to some experts Nawaz Shahrif is the only leader in recent times, who is pulling huge crowds in Sindh. In Baluchistan situation looks even worse for PPP, where Recent Shia's Massacre and poor law and order situation has  shaken Zardari. City of Lights, Karachi has turned into a grave yard, where target killing has become a routine, hardly any day passes where 10 to 15 people are not gunned down ( Security agencies are equally responsible for Karachi target killings and Quetta Hazara Shia Massacre). Scenario over all, looks pretty gloomy for Zardari Sahib.

Now come to PMLN, which according to recent polls, is riding a wave of popularity which is increasing by every passing day. People quote Shahbaz Sharif good governance, give examples of good job done, his vision and development work is recognised by Local and International institutions. Shahbaz Sharif is creating a new vote bank for PMLN in addition to traditional middle to lower middle class urban vote bank, that is youth, which according to experts may play a pivotal role in next GE. PMLN is all set to grab majority of seats won by PPP and PMLQ  in previous GE from Northern Punjab. Similar is the case in  Behawalpur Divisions. PMLN is playing its cards pretty smartly in Southern Punjab, luring big guns in their ranks from PPP and PMLQ, tilting the balance in their favour.

Nawaz Sharif In Larkana (Naudero)

PMLN came out of jolt they suffered in "Hazara division", many political stalwarts entering their ranks from Hazara and Swat Divisions, making their political standing very formidable but lot needs to be done. Baluchistan where Nawaz Shahrif enjoys a great liaison with Baloch leaders, many leaders  have joined their ranks giving PMLN an edge, with bogus votes out of the way as well. Only stumbling block left  is Sindh, where surely, they have gained ground and Mian Nawaz Sharif is attracting huge crowds, only time will tell if these crowds are converted into poll success, as PPP  stands firm in their home territory.

As for some new players , who boycotted the previous GE but would certainly  participate in coming GE. Notables are PTI, JI, Baloch Nationals, Achakzai Group and Sunni Itihad Council (participated n previous polls).

Imran Khan In Toba Tek Singh

PTI definitely gained momentum, post 30th Oct 2011 famous Lahore Jalsa, but some how lost all the momentum in following days and months, peaked too early and flip flop policies of their leader didn't help . Went through huge membership drive, where according to them, registered 7 to 9 million members. Now going through the exercise of intraparty Elections, which are lingering on and on, taking ages to complete, which  is hurting their prospects and preparation for next GE.  Turn out in these intra-party Elections is very dismal and disappointing. Finally, trend in recent polls show, popularity going down by each passing day. PTI needs to get over these intra-party polls as early as possible if they want to threaten their main rival PMLN, otherwise things are getting ominous for them. 

JI exists in pockets of Punjab, but hardly any constituency where they can win on their own, KPK few strings hold, some  pockets of strength in Karachi and Baluchistan as well. For them to survive, they need alliances.

Similar is the Case for Baluch Leaders and Achakzai group, who are all set to align with PMLN and make a powerful alliance in Baluchistan. Other Baluch National, likes of Bughtis and Mengals are set to align themselves with PMLN .

 For PPP and allies, last hope in next GE, is billions of looted and plundered money which they are all set to use, but the way the people reacted in recent by polls, defeat looks ominous for them. As far as PMLN is concerned, despite opposition from all sides, sitting comfortably, way SS worked in last four and half years in Punjab is commendable, reinstated people's faith in Democracy and instilled hope that next GE will bring bright future if honest leader-ship is elected. ( some believe if things go thier way can win big )

Lastly, the next GE seems to be a two horse race in major part of Pakistan, while PPP and allies do have their pockets of strength, but not enough to bring them into power. PTI and PMLN as recent polls indicate, are the two forces, who are major stack holder  in next GE. But clearly, PMLN running away with the lead, as days go on, its fast becoming a one horse race. As for PTI and Imran Khan, losing public confidence and  sentiments due to flip flop and lack of clear road-map on key issues like Qadri fiasco, role of establishment in Pakistan Politics etc. his whole focus is on PMLN and Punjab. PTI and Imran Khan need to understand that Pakistan is not Punjab and PMLN. But Imran's recent stand against LEJ won him many laurels in the political and social circles. ( Roughly 15 to 20% vote bank held by Shia Community and 75 to 80% by Sunni & others).

If you look at Nawaz Sharif and PMLN, came out of 30th Oct 2011 Minare Pakistan debacle through sheer determination and hard work. Shahbaz Sharif put his head down and for two years, ran from pole to Pole to cover the lost ground, initiating and finishing mega projects, focusing on youth. On the other hand Nawaz Sharif holding massive rallies across Pakistan and making alliances. Nawaz Sharif has truly turned into a Statesman and craftsman of highest quality, only politician in Pakistan to challenge the unchallengeable. Very consistent in his policies, you hardly see any drift from core issues, very clear headed about future of Pakistan, to shift Pakistan from a Security to a Social Welfare State.

So it is very likely that from Hazara to Sahiwal, its going to be two way race between PTI and PMLN, with PMLN stretching ahead with the advantage, enjoying an overwhelming popularity in Punjab, while in Southern Punjab its going to be a tough fight between PPP and PMLN, where PMLN believes SS hard work and presence of NS towering personality would be enough for them. In Sindh and KPK, PMLN playing their cards very smartly and seemingly out manoeuvring their opponents, PPP and PTI. In Sindh has formed alliance with PMLF, Nationalists, luring Mumtaz Bhatto's party into their fold, many big guns joined their ranks, their are bright prospects of one on one fight with PPP candidates, though I still believe its going to take a hurricane task to dislodge PPP from their home constituency, but even 10 to 15 seats jolt can take PPP to 1997 scenario. In KPK, has formed alliance with JUI-F to topple the PTI, where Imran Khan PTI definitely has an edge over their opponents but once, one on one scenario is created, its going to be tough for him to make an impact.

Finally,  Pakistani politics is always considered a breading place for opportunist, PMLN needs to be careful in accepting these turn-coats and also should take a clear position on Sectarian violence because from here onwards  it is only PMLN  to beat itself, rather anybody else beat them. Imran Khan need to peak its Election campaign very wisely, if want to make an impact,  lets hope who so ever wins the next GE, would be able to solve the issues of masses and threats, Pakistan is facing both internally and externally.