Tsunama Seems To Disappear In Budha Ravi ??

                     Tsunama Seems To Disappear In Budha Ravi??

Imran Khan PTI promised to blow everything by bringing "Tsunama" to Lahore on 23rd March  in his 10th March Pehsawar rally, he predicted the biggest ever rally in the history of Pakistan, where a million would attend the rally. As it turned out, yes Imran Khan PTI was able to attract 100 to 200 thousand crowd on 23rd March Lahore rally but he fell way short of his claim of  a million attending the rally. The notion behind these claims were that in recently concluded PTI intra-party elections  close to 80 thousand office bearers were elected, Imran Khan PTI was of the view even 4- 5 people accompanying these 80 thousand elected members would make the number touch  half a million, secondly as his previous Minar-e-Pakistan  rally was attended by a large number of Lahories so the number would easily go up and touch the magic figure of a million.

For  last one month, people of Pakistan have witnessed unprecedented and massive advertisement campaign both in print and electronic media, literally every major channel giving good portion of prime time to Imran Khan PTI Lahore jalsa campaign, the ads. were pretty impressive too, showing  recently elected office bearers  belonging to lower middle class and few lower class as well. Major news papers were publishing front page ads. prime time TV commercials costing hundred of thousands per advertisement,  all the major cities of Pakistan particularly Punjab and KPK  were decorated with massive hoardings of Imran Khan PTI Lahore rally. Imran himself campaigned vigorously for Lahore Jalsa, but unfortunately compaign limited to print and electronic madia. Sources claim that 700 million to one billion were spent on one Rally.

Now let us analyze why  Imran Khan PTI went  to such an extent and put huge and untiring effort, while General Election is still two months away. Recently concluded "Gallup-Pildat" survey gave Imran Khan PTI very low scores of 14%, which is even lower than PPP which caused historic damage to Pakistan Economy never witnessed in the past. So falling ratings even below PPP alarmed PTI and forced them to hold an impressive show to dispel that image that PTI is losing its charm.

Secondly PTI arch rival PMLN is galloping ahead in "Gallup-Pildat" poll, running away with unassailable lead in coming GE, so holding a rally in PMLN den Lahore would mean to send a strong signal to his rival that PTI is still in the game and can upset their plans.

But as according to Independent pundits, yes the crowd was impressive but not more than 150 thousand on average, almost at par with 30th October 2011 Lahore rally. Secondly, it was not a Lahore jalsa as newly elected office bearers from all over Pakistan attended the rally, alarmingly only 15 to 20% of Lahories attended the rally. The difference between this rally and October 30th 2011 rally was, Imran Khan PTI prepared for that rally for  over two to three months, carried a door to door campaign in Lahore, holding countless corner meetings, big jalsas in different cities of Punjab before the main event in Lahore, he gathered momentum slowly and gradually, this time round PTI concentrated on spending hundred of millions on print and electronic media, a very placid approach before the rally, may be thinking that those 80 thousand elected office bearer would do the job automatically. Imran Khan PTI forgetting the fact completely that only few thousands voters elected those 80 thousand office bearers, an alarming fact indeed. Secondly, Gallup-Pildat Poll showed that Imran Khan as a leader is popular but when it comes to voting intentions there is a huge difference between Voting and Popularity index. Thirdly "Shahbaz Shahrif" massive developmental work and untiring efforts for the people of Punjab were under-estimated by Imran Khan PTI, who is completely missing the new emerging ground realities, as few years back PMLN missed the trick when Imran Khan PTI emerged as a force. But PMLN had the time on their side and Shahbaz Sharif massive infrastructure development and huge investment in youth paid rich dividends and "Mian Nawaz Sharif" came out of slumber and held countless rallies in different parts of Pakistan and formed alliances with different parties, which makes PMLN the front runner, unfortunately for Imran Khan , time is not on his side as General Election is only 41 days away.

Imran Khan PTI made a tactical error as well, by holding a rally in Lahore so early in Election campaign while Election campaign has not kick started yet, parties are busy in choosing their candidates, giving his arch rival PMLN a chance to hold such a rally near the General Election with all the momentum on their side

Finally PMLN held a rally in Mansehra on 25th March two days after Imran Khan Lahore rally, Mansehra is a city of a million people compared to Lahore which brims with more than10 million people. Nawaz Sharif PMLN attracted a massive crowd of 100 to 150 thousand almost equal to Imran Khan Lahore rally, has stunned many political pundits and  has sent shock waves among his political opponents that without massive advertisement and spending almost pennies, PMLN was able to hold such an impressive show in Mansehra, which according to observers had become an Achilles heal for PMLN after "Hazara Soba" debacle and PMLN had become venerable in Hazara. But such a big show actually worked wonders for PMLN, kick starting their campaign and securing their strong hold Hazara as well. Secondly giving them hell of a confidence going into Election Campaign.

For Imran Khan, lesson to be learned complacency would cause irreparable damage to PTI because with PPP touching its historic lows, Imran Khan PTI can easily secure more seats than PPP if he plays his cards smartly and avoid hiccups, for PPP and PMLQ to win seats from Punjab and KPK is beginning to look an up-hill task and at the same time for PTI to beat PMLN looks more and more unlikely but miracles do happen. As for now "Tsunama seems to have disappeared in Budha Ravi".