Sharif With Political Capital ?

                                 SHARIF WITH POLITICAL CAPITAL?

PM Nawaz Sharif survived the scare of 127 days long Dharna by Imran Khan PTI last year, who mounted unprecedented pressure during his stay at D Chowk on Sharif regime, tried every tactic used in last 67 year Pakistan history to overthrow a legitimate Government out of power. A bit of luck, a wise move to appoint Raheel Sharif as COAS, opposition coming to his rescue a move never witnessed before in history of Pakistan, a Childish and immature leader in shape of Imran Khan and finally Sharif determination and willingness to fight till end saved the day for his regime.  Imran Khan  unarguably head of second most popular party in Pakistan fading quickly, in fact burdened by his own countless lies during 127 days Dharna and his inability to prove much hyped stolen mandate of his in Judicial Commission, where he admitted his failure in his latter to Judicial Commission asking to turn this commission into an investigation authority which is in fact is his right, demanding an comprehensive inquiry into General Election 2013, Call all RO's and ask them for evidence while the same RO's when appeared before the Judicial Commission, not a single question was asked, not a single charge framed against them. While in latest twist, the probe restricted to 11 constituencies where more  than 20% extra ballot papers were given, so the charge of stolen mandate falling apart, form 15 allegation fading away as well, as KP wins the race in missing form 15 mystery, 35 puncture fiasco dying a painful death, causing embarrassment to the whole party, Alvi apologising while others not willing to surrender yet While Imran topping the list of blunders by saying it was a mere political statement and even calling for Military Take Over. Iftikhar Ch, Ramday, Geo, Brig MI, Mir Shakil, Nawaz Sharif etc all given clean chit as well. Technically Imran Khan has been knocked out by his own faulty and childish politics, which was evident in his Poll defeats in recent Punjab By Elections, Gilgit Baltistan and poor show in his own ruled KP province local body elections! Imran Khan PTI need to work from scratch to build his political capital after his horrendous political blunders post 2013 GE or "He should wait for a miracle that somehow JC gives verdict in his favour"!

PM NS second rival the left wing PPP almost completely destroyed by Zardari Sahib reconciliation Mantra, the dreadful five year rule marred by countless corruption scandals, misgovernance never witnessed in history of Pakistan. To PPP credit are historic constitutional amendments but then again they hardly had to do anything with common man life's in shorter run and if your incompitent Provincial Government headed by an ancient Mummy. PPP once known as National Party restricted to ethnic Interior Sindh party, facing existential threat! Zardari Sb recent outburst against Army backfired as well, Reason the PPP lost ground and National identity it once enjoyed across the country, now restricted to Interior Sindh where Poor Poor Governance in last 7 year rule not helping as well, while its Punjab Chapter disintegrated, finding a new home in PTI! 

PM NS biggest political capital in my view is, his economic performance of last two years where he and his team delivered considerably, rescuing a bankrupted economy to stability and his Governance. Though many pundits and analysts still not satisfied with the performance but all the global players are all praise for Sharif Regime... the Economists, the Wall Street Journal, Bloomberg, Moody's, IMF, World Bank, Asian development Bank, Standard and Poors, JETRO, MSCI has revealed its plan to consider upgrading Pakistan from frontier to emerging market status next year.... Morgan Stanley! 'Rise of Pakistan just a matter of time, Pakistan along with 9 other Nations will add another China in 35 years'.. 

PM Sharif in his election rallies promised an economic turn around, Metros, Motorways, Power Plants, Jobs etc.. A typical Sharif Model, infrastructure development and liberalisation of economy. you may find countless economic pundits even few highly educated and ironically served previous regimes and failed miserably, come to electronic medium and tell you how this Government with the help of all renowned International Institutions lying to us ?. lets dig deep and try to find out whether the glass is half empty or its half full ?.

The Pakistan China 46 billion Dollar corridor, dubbed as our road to glory. Connecting China through Pakistan to central Asia, Middle east and Europe, giving Pakistan the key role. its not just a road Network rather consists of a comprehensive plan for Pakistan Growth and recognition of  Pakistan as a global player,  consists of 33 billion Dollar Power Infrastructure, A web of Motor ways, Developing Gawadar port on the Model of Dubai port, using it as a Gate way to Connect this region to the World via Arabian See. Interesting fact about this corridor,  it is stretched to 3 phases, in first phase all the focus is on energy crisis, 17-18 billion dollar to be invested and 10.5 thousand MW energy expected to come in system by 2017-18. Very smart play by PM NS regime, as their term ending in 2018, will go to masses with biggest promise fulfilled, it will ensure a second term in office.

                                    Province wise Detail of projects
                                     in Pak-China Corridor

The fiscal deficit which is back bone of any economy has been brought down by this Government from 8.8% to 4.8% in last two years, there is saying in economy, if the regime is able to achieve their fiscal responsibility that means things are going in the right direction, you create that fiscal space to carry out your ambitious infrastructural and economic goals. The GDP stood at 4.24% this year which is seven year high yes the Government missed the target but then again we achieved a seven year high ?. We have seen a considerable growth in tax collection, a 16% in 2013-14 and 14% in 2014-15 ( 2255 to 2580 billion ), total 34% growth in last two years, the heartening sign is that direct tax ratio reaches 42%, sales tax (indirect tax) 41.7% and custom's duty to 17.2%. When this Government took over, only 7 lac people used to pay Income Tax, this number had grown over 9 lac at the end of this fiscal year.  The foreign reserves has grown from meager 8 billion dollar when this government took over to historic 18.5 billion dollar. The remittances in last two years have grown considerably and all set to cross 18 billion dollar in 2014-15, in fact the growth in remittances and falling oil prices has given a life line to this Government, curtailing trade deficit to 4 year low and helping in building reserves. the stock market performing exceptionally, declared among top 10 performing markets in World ( A growth of 73% since Sharif regime took over ), breached the 35,000 benchmark first time in history of Pakistan.  The stable rupee which was nose diving in fact many pundits predicted to hit all time low of 125-130 against dollar. Inflation which directly affects the life of an average man, recorded a 11 year low in first 3 months of this fiscal year, remained 8 year low 4.53% in year 2014-15. Energy and food prices tumbled to record low in International Market helped to ease down the inflation but Government making a brave move, decided not to print any more currency, curtailed its State Bank borrowing in last 2 years. Tumbling inflation has given Government the opportunity to slash interest rate to 42 year low of 7%, giving private sector huge incentive for their investment.  The unemployment numbers dropped as well from 6.2% to 6% after years. Debt to GDP ratio brought down from 63.9 to 62% of GDP, unfortunately the previous regime violated fiscal responsibility act during their tenure, it had to be below 60% according to Law, this regime promised to bring it below 60% by 2018. The per ca pita income increased to 1512 Dollar which is almost 9.25% increase, clearly showing benefits of growth slowly and steadily started reaching the common man.  The privatisation started after years, the initial few transactions won many laurels from all quarters and International rating agencies.  The worrying thing for this regime must be falling FDI ( -8.5% compared to last year ) but you cant expect FDI in a country hit by political turmoil, Dharna crippling the life out of the State Machinery, bringing the country to a stand still. The growth in exports (-3.5% compared to last year ), under performing Large scale Manufacturing which helps in creating Jobs, Agriculture sector but as predicted by International Funds that going forward we may see a pick up in FDI as Pakistan just signed historic 46 billion dollar Pak-China corridor and stable political environment  in country. large Scale manufacturing will show improvement as Government allocated huge funds in infrastructure and there is zero load shedding in Industry, LNG will definitely help energy starved industry as well but the impact remains to be seen of these efforts, so far services sector helped to achieve 7 year high GDP. "In our neighbouring India the exports falling in last 6 months due to falling oil and commodity prices Internationally" so if this regime able to attract FDI that will further improve trade deficit which during this year fell by a billion dollar and create more jobs. 

Institutions beginning to show signs of improvement , Railways, PIA, Steel Mills etc all showing signs of recovery we never thought was possible as previous regime literally brought these institutions to grinding halt. We are seeing new passenger trains, New freight trains, Iran-Pakistan freight train started after seven years, hardly any delays in Trains, considerable jump in Railway revenue, deficit reduced considerably . Steel Mil production taken to 60%, all set to touch 70% next year meaning the institution will start producing profits for organisation. PIA the dead horse which was eating hundred of billions of hard earned tax money, showing signs of revival  and after years posted profit in last quarter.

We were used to seeing 18-20 hour load shedding in last five years but in last two years we are finally witnessing a scheduled load shedding of 6-8 hours in cities and 8-10 hours in Villages while Industrial feeders exempted from Load shedding, the tube wells given continued electricity of 12 hours  a day. Huge investment of 287 billion rupee in Power Infrastructure by Government in this year's PSDP and China coming to rescue as well, 10 thousand MW power projects have been rolled out to be completed by 2017-18, energy mix is taken care of  which is cheap with indigenous energy preferred. The latest numbers  are very encouraging, the Government produced record 16.3K MW electricity in the month of June 2015 as compared to 14.6K MW in June Last year, the load shedding wouldn't go anywhere unless we produce surplus electricity and improve our old and decaying infrastructure. The LNG terminal completed in record time helping Government to  produce cheap electricity and divert energy to many Plants which were never used due to their cost, it helped Government add 1.5K MW energy in the system. Falling oil prices are helping Sharif regime to curtail circular debt menace hence produce more electricity, estimates are that  next summer the Power generation will hit record high of 20k MW. Having said all this the power sector needs a comprehensive overhaul, wasting hundred of billion annually into line losses, corruption! 

                                     Projects added to System in
                                     two Years

PM Sharif has already inaugurated one of his most prestigious projects the Rawalpindi Islamabad Metro, millions of commuters will benefit from the project yearly, work on Multan metro set in motion,  set to complete in 12 months, All set to start Lahore-Karachi Motorway in August , in fact huge allocations in 2015-16 budget on infrastructure and power projects  will spur growth and create jobs of considerable magnitude. as health and Education under 18th amendment are decentralized to Provinces, special focus has been given to these areas in this budget by Shahbaz Sharif ,  Sharifs  have always been criticised for building Motorways, Metros, bridges, Roads while ignoring  the key Social sectors. This year Punjab allocated 310 billion to education which is 22-23% of total budget while similarly allocated 166 billion to Health which is 12-13% of total budget.

         

                                            Pindi-isloo Metro

                                  Multan Metro to finish this year

PM NS has realised that only way to survive in a country ruled by Dictators for decades is to provide good governance so the people of Pakistan can feel the difference and understand the basic difference between democracy and dictatorship, the exact reason why PM Sharif  is having very cordial relations with establishment compared to his last two terms. While NS is focussing on his ambitious plans of turning around the economy and his promise to end Load shedding by the end of his tenure, is taking credit for operation in Karachi and against terrorist networks 'Zarb e Azb' ( According to International report, Pakistan ranked top among countries marred by terrorism where unprecedented '61%' decrease in terrorist activities this year ) and his opponents are fading away by their own political blunders.  it is fair to say that NS for the time being  is enjoying his hard earned Political Capital and  it is looking ominous to gain further in coming years ?.