PPP And PTI: A Fight For Political Survival And Ascendancy

                           PPP And PTI: A Fight For Political Survival And Ascendancy

PMLN is off to a rollicking start in its election campaign 2013, Nawaz Sharif leading huge rallies across Pakistan, attracting humongous crowds, campaign gathering momentum and crowds are becoming larger and larger with each passing day. On the other hand Shahbaz Sharif also leading rallies across Punjab and attracting reasonable crowds, it looks, Imran Khan is the only man who is trying to compete PMLN in Punjab and KPK, attracting reasonable crowds but still not huge enough to threaten PMLN in Punjab and parts of KPK , his campaign is lacking   momentum rather he needs two or three big big rallies to really kick start his campaign and brighten his chances in GE2013. On the other hand the third party, PPP has almost vanished from Hazara to Sahiwal, even in Southern Punjab is relying on Bradri vote and missing  charismatic Leader like BB to help them out after horrendous five year of their rule.

Now let us find out what are the prospects of different parties in coming GE. A popular feeling in Social and Electronic Media is that it will be a hung Parliament and nobody will get a clear mandate. PPP supporters hoping against hope that PTI will be their saviour and make a crack in right wing vote bank and PPP will be be the net beneficiary of PTI and PMLN fight.

Recent Polls and International Press has clearly indicated that PMLN is the front runner by a long distance, whether its Gallup, Pildat, Fefma, Economist and recently Guardian also declared, PMLN as the front runner. If we look  closely into these Polls, PMLN going to get 110-115 NA seats, PPP 45-50, PTI 15-25, MQM 18-20 and rest of the seats will be shared between Independents and other small group's. On the other hand Economist is assuming PMLN will be getting 59% of the popular vote, meaning more than 150 seats.

There should be no illusion in any body's mind that from "Hazara to Sahiwal", it's two way fight between PTI and PMLN, that accounts for 114 NA seats and who so ever Win's this battle Royal, is going to form next Federal Government.  PPP is almost missing from the scene in these 114 seats battle, despite few terror threats in these areas, is not able to hold a single Jalsa till now, neither their ally Q League able to hold big rallies . We all should remember in cities where urban middle class lives, voting pattern is performance based, Zardari Regime has played havoc in this regard for last five year's.  Secondly close to 35% of the voter's are below thirty, who haven't seen BB or ZAB,  have only witnessed Zardari Regime for last five years and it's horrendous aftermath to economy, not willing to vote PPP. Thirdly Leaderless PPP is not able to hold rallies or Jalsa's, hence gather a momentum of some sort as PMLN and PTI are doing, literally leaving PPP in lurch and out of the race on these 114 seats except few here and there if they get lucky.  PMLN is running the show from Hazara to Sahiwal with PTI threatening them on few seats but up till now, not able to gather enough pace to pose a  stiff challenge to PMLN. The picture really looking bleak as far as PPP is concerned, even their stalwart's like Tasneem Quershi NA 66, Firdous Ashiq Awan NA 111, Imtiaz Safdar Waraich NA 98, Nazar Gondal NA 109, Nadeem Afzal Gondal NA 64, Mian Manzoor Ahmad Wattoo  NA 146-147, Qamar Zaman Kaira NA 106 are feeling the heat and  striving for their political survival, as report's from thier area's are not very encouraging and stiff fight is expected on PPP safe seat's. Nawaz Sharif and  Shahbaz Sharif aggressive campaign and huge rallies are not helping them either, giving headaches and monumental task to retain their seats.  All the theories in air that PTI is going to cut PMLN or right wing vote would ultimately benefit PPP and hence ensure another term in office, are dieing a slow death, as  explained earlier, in cities where urban middle class lives, this right and left debate is almost done and dusted.

As soon as you enter Southern Punjab , it becomes a three horse race between PPP, PTI and PMLN. Here again four things matter's 1) Party Vote 2) Leadership 3) Bradri  4) Religious Vote. For the last five years PMLN has focused that area and has  invested a lot, in Medical Colleges, Universities, Dannish School's, roads, infrastructure, Hospital's etc has been able to increase their Party vote bank considerably  secondly have been able to lure big guns into their party,  as we speak PMLN  has got the  strongest candidates in Southern Punjab and bradri's have aligned themselves with them,  report's are suggesting it's getting tough for PPP to hold on to their fort. Similarly PTI lured many big names into their rank's and posing a stiff challenge to establish poll parties but thing going against PTI is that they are a very young party,  Imran Khan  wasn't able to make a people to people contact in last 15 years until recently he started focusing on that area, root's of PTI are not strong enough. PPP hopes of Yousaf Raza Gillani leading their campaign in Southern Punjab with a Separate Province slogan would materialise, until now whether he is not getting enough public support or Intra-Party rifts?, thing's are not very clear . But still Southern Punjab is a battle field and tough contests are expected in all District's but  PPP needs to pick up otherwise they will lose their much trumpeted card of Southern Punjab.

As we enter in Sindh , PPP is still very confident and hoping to get enough seat's as they did in previous GE or even improve the tally. But a strong alliance is emerging against PPP in Sindh and if they are able to field joint candidates, anything can happen in one on one fight. As there is no PTI in interior Sindh and PPP contesting it's first election without any towering leadership or  sympathy vote to bank on, it can be a tough battle for PPP , by this time it's PPP's election in Sindh.

 GE2013 is make or break for two parties " namely" PPP and PTI. PPP trying to save Bhutto's legacy and win enough seat's to be in the game and a force to reckon until Bilwal leads them to yet another glory. While PTI is striving to make a dent in major poll parties vote bank and find an honourable identity for themselves, so they can become a force and replace of PPP as the second biggest Poll party in Pakistan. As for PMLN it's their GE, if they lose, there no one to blame and they are looking to form the next Federal Government, seemingly with a clear cut  rather  than a spilt  mandate, contrary to a popular belief of a hung Parliament.